Jun. 22nd, 2004 10:43 am
Grim calculus
So I've got some stock to sell. I've been meaning to dump it for some time--it's from a second-rank telecom and I got it as a gift. I've just been waiting for the valuation to exceed what it was when I got it so that it won't feel like I'm losing money (which is stupid, since it's not like I bought it at that price--much less the person who gave it to me). This has taken a while, thanks to the general hammering of telecoms in the stock market a few years back. But I can't wait too much longer, since I'll need the cash to fund improvements to my condo.
(I didn't used to sound like yuppie scum every time I talked about my home life. Honest.)
In any case, it's a game of waiting as long as I can in the hope that it will inch up a little higher. The recovery looks solid, so I'm not worried about a sudden dip in the market, even once the Fed raises rates. In fact, the only thing that makes me want to cash out right away is the risk of terrorism. Al-Qaida has stated its intention to hit us again before the election (whether to drive Bush out of office or keep him in, well, that's the source of a lot of speculation, isn't it?) and nothing would crash the stockmarket like another attack on American soil.
Just today, though, it occurred to me that if we did get hit again, comsumer confidence would also plummet and stores would have to slash prices to get everyone shopping again, just as they did in winter of 2001/2002--even more so if another Nuradin Abdi shows up and detonates something in a shopping mall. In that case, the drop in my returns on the stock sale might be outweighed by the discounts from the retailer on the stuff I need.
I hate myself for even entertaining such bloody-minded thoughts. Is the threat of terrorism really that abstract for me? Or am I just in denial?
(I didn't used to sound like yuppie scum every time I talked about my home life. Honest.)
In any case, it's a game of waiting as long as I can in the hope that it will inch up a little higher. The recovery looks solid, so I'm not worried about a sudden dip in the market, even once the Fed raises rates. In fact, the only thing that makes me want to cash out right away is the risk of terrorism. Al-Qaida has stated its intention to hit us again before the election (whether to drive Bush out of office or keep him in, well, that's the source of a lot of speculation, isn't it?) and nothing would crash the stockmarket like another attack on American soil.
Just today, though, it occurred to me that if we did get hit again, comsumer confidence would also plummet and stores would have to slash prices to get everyone shopping again, just as they did in winter of 2001/2002--even more so if another Nuradin Abdi shows up and detonates something in a shopping mall. In that case, the drop in my returns on the stock sale might be outweighed by the discounts from the retailer on the stuff I need.
I hate myself for even entertaining such bloody-minded thoughts. Is the threat of terrorism really that abstract for me? Or am I just in denial?