Grim calculus

[muckefuck]

So I've got some stock to sell. I've been meaning to dump it for some time--it's from a second-rank telecom and I got it as a gift. I've just been waiting for the valuation to exceed what it was when I got it so that it won't feel like I'm losing money (which is stupid, since it's not like I bought it at that price--much less the person who gave it to me). This has taken a while, thanks to the general hammering of telecoms in the stock market a few years back. But I can't wait too much longer, since I'll need the cash to fund improvements to my condo.

(I didn't used to sound like yuppie scum every time I talked about my home life. Honest.)

In any case, it's a game of waiting as long as I can in the hope that it will inch up a little higher. The recovery looks solid, so I'm not worried about a sudden dip in the market, even once the Fed raises rates. In fact, the only thing that makes me want to cash out right away is the risk of terrorism. Al-Qaida has stated its intention to hit us again before the election (whether to drive Bush out of office or keep him in, well, that's the source of a lot of speculation, isn't it?) and nothing would crash the stockmarket like another attack on American soil.

Just today, though, it occurred to me that if we did get hit again, comsumer confidence would also plummet and stores would have to slash prices to get everyone shopping again, just as they did in winter of 2001/2002--even more so if another Nuradin Abdi shows up and detonates something in a shopping mall. In that case, the drop in my returns on the stock sale might be outweighed by the discounts from the retailer on the stuff I need.

I hate myself for even entertaining such bloody-minded thoughts. Is the threat of terrorism really that abstract for me? Or am I just in denial?

Comments

[niemandsrose.livejournal.com]

[...] shows up and denotes something in a shopping mall

You mean detonates? I've denoted things in shopping malls myself.

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

No; I'm actually concerned about what crazed, hostile semioticians might try. Can you think of any more effective means of undermining our way of life?

[niemandsrose.livejournal.com]

That's Noam Chomsky's job.

[febrile.livejournal.com]

Easily the most snorf-inducing thing I've read in a long, long, looooong time.

[go-wade-in.livejournal.com]

i'm proud of being a yuppie. who cares what the poor "artists" think.

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

Perhaps if I had actually achieved this standard of living on the strength of my own labours, I'd be a little less apologetic. But I'm all too conscious of how utterly lucky I am to be able to live as I do.

[go-wade-in.livejournal.com]

give more to charity--then you can enjoy your lifestyle and still have a clear conscience!

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

Oh, it's not that I don't enjoy my lifestyle. I just don't think that precludes a little humility. And donating to charity is no substitute for that--just a quick fix for those who think money solves everything.

[febrile.livejournal.com]

Thinking these thoughts don't make me hate myself. Me, my curiosity is less about the CPI and more about what would happen to the jobs market. If things truly became of Depression-era levels, would New Dealish TVA projects have to spring up? How would free markets respond?

It's interesting to contemplate and model, and you gotta know that Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, JP Morgan, etc. etc. etc. already have more studies and stress tests on this than you'd care to read. Something's gotta keep Rand and Carlyle in business, after all.

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

I can't tell you how uplifting it is to be told I'm no more cynical and heartless than the fine analysts at Morgan "A Stockbroker's Life Is Worth Ten Times a Busboy's" Stanley. If it weren't for the almost nugatory distinction that they are paid to make such calculations and I do it out of pure self-interest, today would be a feast of self-love.