The Death of Imagination

I think we're both in favor of higher standards, but point taken. About the only thing that gives me any long term hope is that Libya' diplomatic core has fragmented or at least turned on him, his capacity to rally external help beyond a cushy exile is lessened by this.

I have to wonder in the case of the Egyptian military, if they took the stand of not shooting the people and remaining in control until Mubarak could stumble into the reality that he had lost power, so that they could keep their borders secure, unlike what happened when we dismantled the Iraqi army after the invasion.

With Libya there is still the possibility that a general strike/its not safe to be on the streets - exerts its own kind of pressure - the thing is we don't know how deep elite (millitary, business, government) opposition runs. the BBC had China and the UK evacuating or preparing to evacuate their citizens - I don't know how long they can go with economic disruption.

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From all reports, the regime has lost control of anywheres between half and three-quarters of the country. The border with Egypt is in the hands of the opposition (who are, somewhat bizarrely, being described as "armed with clubs and machine guns"--I can't be the only one imagining crude Alley-Oopesque bludgeons, can I?), as are all major cities in the eastern half of the country. Gaddafi himself claimed that the bombing runs in Tripoli were aimed at army bases which had gone over to the opposition, which is why I think it's not premature to use the "civil war" label.

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Thanks for the update, these are the days where I wish I could stream BBC World, until 2002 it was available on iTunes's predecessor as a live continual stream. Yes, 9 years ago and I am still not over it...

Alley-Oopesque bludgeons - no you aren't the only one - been a long time since I've had that image. Its somewhat reassuring that they hold the border with Egypt, I can't imagine the Egyptian army doing much more than holding that border and what might become a potential refugee crisis if this is a civil war that goes on for any length of time.

A report I read in the last 48 hours had Quaddafi's air force is hitting civilian targets, the claim that they were hitting break away factions of the millitary does not really hold water, at least not entirely. I have to wonder if this isn't part of the general assertion of war crimes, or genocide against his own people - and use these phrases as paraphrase of opposition statements - IIRC the Libyan ambassador to the UN.

Actually I should see if I can stream the BBC radio, surely there's an App for that?

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But Al-Jazeera has been doing pretty good on coverage- they've been cold calling people in Tripoli and aggregating reports to get at least some information out. Watching their feed while CNN goes on about the royal wedding and the latest missing dead white girl is a bit surreal- as was watching them pan back n forth over Tahir square right after Mubarak came down, with no talking heads or scrolling text streams...

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Thanks, I've been avoiding CNN mainly because they've never had a network of reporters there - it was never safe for journalists and well, of course their take on international news is the Royal Wedding.

BTW - the BBC iPhone app is in development and they are soliciting donations to fund the completion of its development.

I should look at Al-Jazeera, or hopefully listen to or read Al-Jazeera - they have as much of a democratizing role as Facebook and Twitter in this recent spate of conflicts.

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I had thought that the BBC restricted at least their English feeds to the UK due to their licensing restrictions- barring a proxy service, they have no intention of sharing, unless you pay for it somehow (which would be possible via an app).

Al jezeera has no such qualms:

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/al-jazeera-english-live/id318348833?mt=8

Oddly enough, so far the one country I've heard the least about in the area is.. qatar. Imagine that

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Hi,
Thank you for the Al-Jazeera app link!

To clarify, I am in the U.S I am listening via Real Player - and I am able to access that via their news portion of their website, to the BBC world service. A lot of the BBC's online streaming content is restricted - I can't get any of the BBC sports streaming for example, but that's minor.

It is a little humorous that Qatar has not seen any violence, not that I have any understanding of political conditions there beyond the presence of Al-Jazeera and statements about political conditions for Women and GLTBQs there in connection with their selection for the World Cup. Perhaps the basic concession of journalism has given the general population enough of an assurance on basic foundational civil rights and the possibility for it to grow that... well what do I know of what will happen in Qatar next.

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In fact, that's a major source of discontent in Bahrain. Not only are the security forces recruited from outside, but the members are fast-tracked to citizenship as part of a deliberate government strategy to alter the demographic balance.[*] (All detailed in a report by a government employee who--somewhat ironically--was himself of foreign origin and found himself forcibly deported for his pains.) And if that weren't enough, they may already have allowed Saudi forces into the country in order to help suppress the unrest. In any case the Al-Khalifa family wouldn't hesitate to do that if they felt their position seriously threatened. (The Saudis, who have their own restive Shia minority just across the border, might even attempt move in unilaterally if they saw the situation deteriorating.)

But as I mentioned earlier, I think Bahrain is more like Egypt than Libya because of its susceptibility to outside pressure. I mean, the US has its freakin' 5th Fleet there, after all! It's no coincidence that violent suppression of protests in Bahrain came to a halt after a phone call from Obama and I think the army's unwillingness to fire on its own citizens in Egypt was at least somewhat influenced by the administration's vocal comments about "reviewing" the $1.3 billion in military aid they get from the US annually.

[*] Which, of course, nurtures an ugly nativist streak among the Shia opposition. This is especially regretful, because Bahrain is one of the few Gulf states that's actually humane in its treatment of immigrants.

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lhn.livejournal.com

While I have no idea how widespread this sort of thing is, it's a hopeful sign:

Libyan newspaper Quryna is reporting a crash of a Sukhoi Su-22 'Fitter' fighter-bomber. According to the reporter, the crash happened very near the sea line, to the west of the Libyan city of Ajdabiya—160 kilometers south west of Benghazi. The reason: The crew ejected after refusing to bomb civilians in the city of Benghazi. The pilot—a colonel—and his co-pilot are fine.

This is the third aircraft incident during the popular uprising against Qaddafi. In the first, two Mirage F1 defected, landing in Malta. Two SuperPuma helicopters also escaped to Malta.

http://gizmodo.com/#!5768340/two-libyan-pilots-eject-after-refusing-to-bomb-civilians

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Couldn't they maybe have turned around and bombed Bab al-Azizia instead?

(For that matter, why aren't we bombing it again? Aren't the lives of thousands of Libyans worth at least as much as two US army sergeants?)

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lhn.livejournal.com

I wouldn't necessarily be opposed. But there is a difference between responding to a direct attack on our own people and intervening in another country's internal conflict.

And whatever I think, at this political juncture military intervention to promote democracy in a Muslim country is likely a hard sell politically. Considering the continuing controversy over our actions wrt a regime that violated most of its peace terms from the previous war, will the public support attacking one that-- however murderous at home-- has been sort of behaving itself internationally in recent years, and with which we don't have a direct casus belli?

(We did, at length, intervene in ex-Yugoslavia, but only after it had ground on a long while, and there was no Iraq or Afghanistan fatigue then.)

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There was a chart floating around recently showing that the number of people actually dying in violent conflicts has been going down steadily for at least several decades. Seemed a bit counter intuitive to me, as the number of conflicts was supposed to have risen for the last 2 decades, but I imagine both number runs are a bit selective.

Mostly I've been following the Arab revolts through NPR, Andrew Sullivan, and some big chunks of Al-jeezera, but its hard to feel sanguine about how all it's going to be in the long term. Ukraine, the Palestinian Authority, & Lebanon (just to name a few) all show that 'democracy' is a very messy process indeed, to put it bluntly.

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On the other hand, we're getting a better look at the consequences of an overriding desire for "neatness" (a.k.a. "political stability") and they're hardly any prettier. I recognise that the record of past revolutions demonstrates that they often end in tears, but at least they offer a chance of improvement in situations where the status quo is an open-ended succession of strongmen. As bloody as Iraq is, is anyone out there really willing to argue it's worse off than North Korea (once again primed for another catastrophic famine)? Somalia is even less of a poster child, but there's no question that parts of it (notably Somaliland) are doing far better than than they were under Siad Barre. If, say, Libya splits and only the eastern half the country transitions to a civil regime, at least that's another million and half people who have escaped tyranny.

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They deserve every chance that they can get (or make), and it shames me that our country will do so little to help them in the here & now, tho what can be done? They are rioting in Kurdestan to bring down their own cabal of corrupt old men, plus in other places all throughout the country. Messy indeed, but what else can they do?

Wikileaks has spread light into some very dark corners, which I think helped to galvanize at least some of this seasons’s fires. But commodity prices are still climbing worldwide, and the biggest fuse is still burning: grain production this year is actually declining due to Russia's drought & Australia’s floods, even as we pull more of the crop into fuel for our cars...

When that paticular price shock hits the heavily subsidized markets all across the third world, all hells gonna break loose

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Having lived in Libya pre- and post-Gaddafi, I have my own, personal and no doubt highly un-politic opinion of how much a tyrant the man is. I would call him a dictator; an egomaniacal autocrat who has engaged in international terrorism, but I saw many positive social changes instituted by his regime as well. I think the economic oppression imposed by his predecessor King Idris' hand-in-glove relationship with the oil companies was more squarely "tyranny". I'm certainly not a Gaddafi apologist, and I hope the country's current unrest is a sign of positive change, but I am wary of the unbalanced picture we get when painting the man with too broad and black a brush.

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It might well have been different when you were there, but I don't think "tyranny" is too strong a term for the current situation. Anyone can become a tyrant if they stay in power too long. Look at Mugabe in Africa--from liberator and well-respected statesman to paranoid thugocrat in only twenty years.

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I'm sure you're right. There's no excuse for his actions. I guess my point is more that the current revolt is only possible because of the reforms in education and social welfare he has instituted. I don't believe there could have been a popular revolt before Gaddafi, in '69. I think dictatorships are often the segue between absolute monarchy and a more democratic system.

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I don't know--our own history kind of speaks against that, doesn't it?

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It does. And often doesn't mean always.

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I can understand this, but India, Canada, certainly the U.S. (as Muckefuck has pointed out) have had other paths and generally in the break up of the Commonwealth nations it hasn't been absolute. Mubarak actually claimed credit for the freedom of speech he allowed in his initial response to the protests - implying that the protestors should be grateful that he allows them internet access and educations etc.

In many other instances transitional democracies were undermined by our cold war tactical fear of communism, not that there was cause for concern, but over a long period of time, the U.S. has undermined a lot of nascent democracies - and perhaps distorts what we might think of as unfortunate (but necessary) stages in comparative socio-political development. And as Gorkabear and Arkanjil have pointed out other countries have dictator-laundered Libya.

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I see. I certainly didn't want to imply, ala Mubarak, that the people should be grateful.
Perhaps Gaddafi and his regime have been fully evil, with no positive characteristics at all, but that would be a first, wouldn't it, at least outside of fairy tales.

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No reason to indulge in either-or fallacies. We all agree that the regime is more bad than good at this point, we just differ on how to weight the improvements Gaddafi brought to Libya against his longstanding and ongoing violent suppression of the populace.

Molly's point about the Cold War distorting the record of previous attempts at democratisation is well taken. Historically, we've much preferred pro-US dictators to even the possibility of a left-leaning popular government. After all, who helped secure King Idris' domination of Libya in the first place?

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True. And, I find that demonization, whether of Gaddafi or US imperialism, is one of the most potent and well-used tools of distortion we have when looking at political events of any size. All these forces are admixtures of good and bad in their intent and execution. I sure hope that the good prevails, on the balance, in this instance as in all others.

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gorkabear.livejournal.com

What I terribly find ironic is how Gaddafi has photos with all Southern Europe politicians. I think that Lybia is Italy's largest bank's largest stakeholder (did I misplace a genitive here?)

I heard on Catalunya Ràdio the translation of his speech. That guy is insane! I wish I could forecast something positive.

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Italian bond prices are going nuts, and there is considerable worry that this combined with thier little prime minster issue might push them over the abyss,. a la Greece:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/ugly-out-there.html

Interesting times n all...

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gorkabear.livejournal.com

Well, we in Spain get most of our gas from Algeria, oil from Lybia and immigrants from Morocco :)

Our king (the same that markets himself as the most democratic king that Spain has ever had) has plenty of photographs with despotic leaders of those countries. In fact, due to pretenciosu historical reasons, Spain wants always to play the "friend of Arabs" kind of role. What Spain never played was "friend of Arab people" but "friend of dictators in Arab countries". I also remember that our former conservative PM once gave Gaddafi a wonderful horse as a gift.

Related to your link, yes, we're all in a mess :)

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