Do the math

[muckefuck]

According to figures compiled by Iraqbodycount.net, there have been between 8,875 and 10,725 reported "non-combatant" deaths in Iraq since coalition military intervention began a little over a year ago.

According to figures compiled by the (Iraqi-run!) Human Rights Centre in Kadhimiya (as reported in this article ganked from lhn), the number of people who would've died over the past year if Saddam had remained in power would've been 70,000. ("Not [due to]sanctions," the author hastens to add, "Saddam's tyranny alone.")

For those of you having a little trouble with your long division, the second figure is seven times the midpoint of the range for the first. I know it's simplistic to compare body counts--there's more to morality than just how many corpses you end up with. On the other hand, it's not a bad place to start.

In an interview on the radio, an Iraqi army officier, part of the battalion that refused to support the Marines in Fallujah, was quoted as saying, "We will not fire on our countrymen." It's hard to see how you can run a security force in a country with endemic insurgency if that's your attitude, but it's a refreshing change from Baathism, isn't it? Not to mention an interesting rejoinder to predictions of a bloody civil war. I wonder if one of the occupation's most important contributions won't end up being providing a common target for Iraqi hatred and resistence, thus solidifying feelings of Iraqi solidarity. That much of a contribution to nation-building would be an important accomplishment in itself.

Comments

[lhn.livejournal.com]

According to figures compiled by the (Iraqi-run!) Human Rights Centre in Kadhimiya (as reported in this article ganked from lhn), the number of people who would've died over the past year if Saddam had remained in power would've been 70,000. ("Not [due to]sanctions," the author hastens to add, "Saddam's tyranny alone.")

For those of you having a little trouble with your long division, the second figure is seven times the midpoint of the range for the first.

It's also, apropos previous discussions, seven to twenty times the number of Kosovar deaths that were deemed sufficient to justify NATO intervention there, and of approximately the same order of magnitude as the total number of deaths predicted if we didn't intervene in Kosovo.

[pacotelic.livejournal.com]

Good point. It doesn't change my opinion of the invasion as generating more terroristic resentment towards the US and its allies

[nibadi.livejournal.com]

Ich habe mich zwangsläufig mit so viel Statik im Studium befassen müssen, dass ich weiss, dass man sie bestens mißbrauchen kann. Beliebt sind einfache Mittelwertangaben, die als Totschlagargumente eingesetzt werden, ohne Varianzen und Signifikanzen zu berechnen. Mich würde schon interessieren auf welcher Grundlage man zu der Zahl von 70 000 kommt.

Bewegt man sich auf numerischer Argumentationsebene, heisst das dann, mann darf die Kriegspolitik und die mangelhafte Vorbereitung der Nachkriegszeit (wann immer sie angefangen hat oder tatsächlich anfangen wird) von Seiten der amerikanischen Administration nicht kritisieren? Das wäre eine seltsame Logik.

Angenommen, die Zahlen stimmen, sollte man der Kriegskoalition am Ende 60 000 Tote gutschreiben für das zweite Jahr, weil es dann lediglich Gleichstand bedeuten würde?

Es zweifelt doch niemand, dass im alten Regime des Iraks hunderttausende gefoltert und getötet wurden. Ist das ein Freischein für mangelhafte politische Führung und mangelhaftes diplomatisches Geschick für Bush?

Zum eigentlichen Punkt meiner Kritik: Als primäres Ziel dieses Krieges wurde nicht der Regimewechsel angegeben, sondern die angebliche Bedrohung der USA durch Massenvernichtungswaffen. Beweise für diese Bedrohung liegen bis heute nicht vor. Der Kampf gegen Terrorismus, der nach Kriegsbeginn zusätzlich vorgeschoben wurde, ist gescheitert. Das Risiko ist keineswegs geringer geworden, auch wenn es in den USA keine Anschläge gab.

Der Kriegsgrund war ein Regimewechsel im Irak. Warum wird das nicht endlich gesagt. Keiner weint dem Diktator eine Träne nach, keiner wünscht ihn zurück. Aber der Krieg wurde trotz allem unter dem Vorwand falscher Tatsachen geführt. Des weiteren wurde der Wechsel des Regimes stümperhaft vorbereitet. Sieht man Bush und Blair in Interviews, hat man den Eindruck, sie seien beide Autisten und können immer nur die gleichen Reaktionstereotypien absondern.

[gopower.livejournal.com]

Read between the lines: We will not fire on our countrymen" until we know who's going to win.

[zompist.livejournal.com]

I've made a very similar argument myself; but I wonder at the 70,000 figure. Based on figures from Human Rights Watch I got 14,500 a year, and that was arguably misleading because much of the total was confined to a few worse than usual campaigns (e.g. against the Marsh Arabs).

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

There's every reason to question that figure, given that we have, AFAICT, no access to the methodology that produced it. According to the same blogger, the HRC has processed only 200,000 files out of 6 million. But it is worth noting that they have access to the actual records of the regime, which Human Rights Watch didn't when they produced their estimates. Also, even many Iraqis assumed that hundreds of thousands of prisoners would be liberated when Saddam's jails were opened. This didn't happen and most of those taken prisoner must now be presumed dead (something the HRC hopes to document). I'm not sure to what HRW assumed when they compiled their figures, but it's possible that the final death toll for Baathism might have to be revised upward.

I think the point you made in that commentary needs to be reemphasised in light of recent events. Yes, wars kill people. But when demicidal regimes are in power, so does "peace". Is it terrible that so many--both civilians and combatants--have died in Iraq in recent weeks? Absolutely. But at least their deaths are connected to attempts to make conditions better rather than consolidate the hold of an absolute dictator. That may be no comfort to the victims and their survivors, but I would hope that others in Iraq would feel differently.

[vokzal.livejournal.com]

Well, its nice to know that at least we're doing /something/ useful.