Cold consolation

[muckefuck]

I know that there's not much I can do to make this day better for most of you, but that won't stop me from trying. Here are some reasons why it may all not be quite as bad as you think:

1. Order Many pundits predicted a repeat of 2000. Ohio notwithstanding, it hasn't happened. The absence of major glitches suggests that the investments made in improving voting machinery and procedures over the past several years really did pay off. This is good news for those concerned about voting rights, legitimacy, and the American image abroad.
2. Turnout Record numbers! In my own city, 77% of registered voters made it to the polls. Now if we can get some of these people interested in the primaries and midterm elections, it could really make a difference. Amid the gloom, I hear one progressive after another pledging to engage in politics, to proselytise, to support the ACLU and other liberal causes.
3. 2006 Midterm elections traditionally favour the opposition. Hands up, everyone who thinks that Iraq is going to be less of a liability to the Republicans by then. Had the election been decided on this rather than "moral issues" (code for abortion and gay marriage, unless I misread it), the Democracts would have carried the day. With Daschle gone, the GOP have lost their last excuse; from now on, the blame for any bad policies or mistakes can be laid squarely at their feet.
4. Gay marriage I know I keep coming back to this, but when it comes to monumental social change, you have to keep the longer term in mind: Demographics favours it. A majority my age and younger accept gay marriage; as they mature and the elderly opponents die off, the balance will tip. Some civil liberties we will need to gird ourselves to defend, but the progress of this front seems inexorable.
5. Personality Not to kick a man who's down, but Kerry's lack of personal magnetism was probably at least as much of a factor in his defeat as the appeal of his ideas. Clinton showed what a charismatic (Southern) Democrat can do when he runs from the centre. We have almost four years to find and groom another one.

I'm afraid that's all I have for now, but I'll keep mulling. Several people have posted pep talks, but by far the best I've seen so far is scathedobsidian's. (mikiedoggie deserves an honourable mention, but his optimism is confined to last two paragraphs.)

Comments

[twnchicago.livejournal.com]

very well stated and very much needed...

[febrile.livejournal.com]

The sentiment is appreciated.

[go-wade-in.livejournal.com]

>> but Kerry's lack of personal magnetism was probably at least as much of a factor in his defeat as the appeal of his ideas >>

agree.

[snowy-owlet.livejournal.com]

Thank you for the link.

In re: #4, I totally agree. I have been talking for months about how, in large measure, I'm waiting for the boomers to die off and take their conservative, left-over-from-the-50s ideals with them, and how funny it'll be when I'm an old lady and I seem crusty.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

One of the most interesting comments I heard after 2000's Florida debacle was this, from an election official I don't remember: before every election, the people running it pray for a landslide, because every election is riddled with problems. The only thing that was really significant about Florida was the amount of attention that the problems got.

So I don't find myself reassured by the "absence of major glitches" in this year's polling. If anything I find it more disturbing because I think it's likely to result in a sense of complacency. There were problems and inconsistencies reported in voting machinery all over the place, but because they're perceived as isolated they're not being taken seriously.

(I am thinking here primarily about problems with electronic voting, which were in fact widely reported and seem to be just as widely ignored by the press. But given some of the paper-ballot problems I have heard reported in the last few weeks, I think there continue to be serious issues there that we are not learning from.)

As for 2006, I'll see you and raise with 2002.

I agree strongly with you on the demographics and personality issues. If the Democratic party could get its shit together and nominate a candidate who actually held some intrinsic appeal I could see them coming back from the dead.

Anyway, that leads me to the chief ray of sunshine I see today: the rumor that Terry McAuliffe may soon be out of a job. The sooner the Dems can sack that weaselly bag of shit the better off I believe the party will be.

The other bit that pleases me today is the GOP's total failure to establish a legislative stronghold here in Massachusetts. jacflash chalks it up to Mitt's trying to misapply national Republican strategies to local races, where traditionally libertarian strategies have always worked better than evangelical ones.

pinkfish said this well:

It seems that every state legislator who openly supported marriage rights clobbered their opponent, right across the board. Here in MA, equal marriage rights have popular support, and far from being "political suicide" as it was originally touted, it turns out to be a strong supporting differentiator.

And from http://www.massequality.org/:

Every pro-equality incumbent legislator won reelection yesterday. In addition, pro-equality candidates won six of eight open seats where the opponent was in favor of writing discrimination into the constitution. In one of the few races where equal marriage rights became a significant issue, openly gay Carl Sciortino beat by a two-to-one margin Representative Vinny Ciampa, who waged a homophobic write-in campaign after losing the primary.

The 11 anti-marriage amendments that were passed last night, while disappointing, are not making me feel very discouraged; right now, the most important thing is not to make sure that same-sex marriage can be recognized everywhere, but to make sure that they continue to be recognized somewhere. A shift in the wrong direction in the Massachusetts legislature would have given momentum to the movement to amend our constitution in 2006. Last night puts one more nail in that coffin.

[scathedobsidian.livejournal.com]

You're right- there's a lot of encouraging subtext to this election.

And damn. Thanks. I'm flattered.

[his-regard.livejournal.com]

Hands up, everyone who thinks that Iraq is going to be less of a liability to the Republicans by then.

That would be me. 2006 seems like a far enough horizon for the proxy war happening in Iraq to be sufficiently decided. The real issue of the day will be the handling of the next stage of the War on Terror; right now, Iran seems to be a leading contender, but Syrian-backed Sudan (with or without a new al-Qaeda retrenchment) is gaining momentum.

[gopower.livejournal.com]

Gay marriage I know I keep coming back to this, but when it comes to monumental social change, you have to keep the longer term in mind: Demographics favours it.

In fact, those four Massachusetts judges and their ideologically-minded counterparts are entirely to blame for the fact that 18 states have now inscribed anti-gay marriage into their constitutions and many also banned civil unions. And that includes more progressive states like Michigan, Ohio and even Oregon, not just the Bible Belt. And more will follow before it gets better.

If judges had not egrigiously overstepped their power, the pro-gay trend would have continued smoothly: more corporations offering partner benefits, more public if extra-legal commitment ceremonies, more "Will & Grace", more government benefits and, eventually, civil union-type arrangements. Not all conservatives oppose gays or even civil unions, but all do oppose legislation from the bench.

All that will still happen, but now it will take decades longer. Thanks to the HRC, ACLU and friends.

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

See, given Iran's proximity to Iraq, why don't you think that their continued meddling would prolong a proxy war while the growing adversion to interventionism would prevent a really confrontational stance against the mullahs?

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

It's tempting to believe that same-sex marriage would have happened anyway because of thawing attitudes toward same-sex couples, but there is little evidence to suggest that is true. It is only through the last several years of work on marriage equality that even as many as 25% of the population favor marriage rights for gay couples.

The judges who had the temerity to rule that the state could not deny gay people access to the legal framework of marriage are hardly "entirely to blame" for the fact that there has been a backlash. And that's essentially what this is: a backlash, not a groundswell.

The truth is that if the SJC in Massachusetts hadn't ruled as they did, no same-sex couples would be married today. The trend is moving faster, not slower, thanks to their work.

[my-tallest.livejournal.com]

If judges had not egrigiously overstepped their power, the pro-gay trend would have continued smoothly

Friend, I respectfully disagree. There was always going to be that jump to marriage to deal with. And there was always going to be that fearful reaction. And let's face it, with Europe, and Canada right across the border moving, the fear and its reaction was coming with or without the SGC's decision.

At least now in MA we have a lively experiment going on that's going to provide an example of how it can work. I'd have loved it to be more states participating, but let's face it, with or without the judges, this was coming to a head. I'm going to be very happy to point to MA's lack of marital disintegration in four years. Oh, yeah, plus we get to be married and enjoying benefits now. How much is that going to get the out-of-staters to get off their asses and push?

In my opinion: fuck waiting. Look at history; you could end up waiting a century that way. Better to push the pendulum, have it swing back hard, but get to swing it further the next time.

[dilletante.livejournal.com]

your #3 depresses me further. i was clinging to the (admittedly rather fantastic) hope that with no re-election options, bush would cut karl rove loose and stop replacing government scientists with religious right theologians. but a 2006 turnover in congress would seriously cramp his style for the last two years, so i suppose that's unlikely.

gay marriage seems to have momentum now, regardless of the state referenda; and we can all hope that bush will quietly table the constitutional-amendment talk now that it's served its purpose. after all, he's a uniter, not a divider. and we can hope that the several supreme court justices he's planning to appoint will protect the rights of married gay couples in the state(s) where such is legal and not find ways to somehow roll back the rights of homosexuals in other states, in their decades on the court.

i gotta agree with you on #6, though. i'm actually wondering how kerry will avoid being lynched after his speech tonight, after conceding defeat before all the ballots were even counted.

[nibadi.livejournal.com]

Ich fürchte, da gibt es keinen schnellen Trost für die, die unbedingt einen Wechsel wollten. Ich hoffe, meine Migräne, die mich schon um 6 pm ins Bett getrieben hat, ist nicht der Wiederwahl dieses schrecklichen Präsidenten zu verdanken (ich hab mir die Seele aus dem Leib gekotzt).
Ich stimme dir zu, dass Kerry nicht annähernd so viel Charisma wie Bill Clinton hat. Aber Clinton ist eine Ausnahmeerscheinung. Wir waren 8 Jahre neidisch auf diesen Präsidenten.
Ich bin erst ein mal betrübt. Wenn die USA wählen, wählen die Bürger nicht nur ihren Präsidenten. Sie wählen die Führung der westlichen Demokratien und darüber hinaus neuerdings auch einige Kriege in dieser Welt. Hätten wir Euros doch nur mitwählen dürfen.

Wie auch immer:

God bless America. (... ja, ich bin allerdings ein bissle ungläubig, aber es schadet ja trotzdem nich)

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

Amen, amen, amen. To which I would add:

In order for it to be possible anywhere, it has to start by being possible somewhere.

Some state had to be the first one. We had thought it would be Hawaii and then Vermont. It ended up being Massachusetts.

All three of them happened because of a court ruling. It would just not have happened otherwise.