Exceptional massacre

[muckefuck]

For me, one of the most striking aspects of the horrible slaughter in Libya is how much our expectations have changed. When did we start believing that authoritarian dictators could be unseated with a minimum of bloodshed? It's tempting to see 1989 as the watershed year in this regard, though I don't know if that's giving too little attention to the wave of democratisation in Latin America that preceded it. And even then the thrill of seeing Communist regimes topple like deck chairs before a gale was tempered by the bloody mess of Tiananmen Square.

Four years later, a civil war was in full swing in Algeria in the wake of a de facto military coup; within a decade, perhaps 200,000 died, most of them civilians. And what we have now in Libya is rapidly coming to resemble an old-fashioned civil war more than a people power revolution. Despite the flurry of recent trade agreements, Gaddafi is clearly no more amenable to outside pressure than he ever was. If anything, he's only become more delusional--one glance at his recent pair of appearances is enough to confirm that.

All things considered, I'm amazed that the confirmed body count isn't already above four figures. It's a stark reminder, as fengshui pointed out recently, of just how badly the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt could've gone. Here's hoping it's a powerful example to the remaining dictators of What Not To Do. Already Bahrain seems to be leaning back from the abyss, though the damage already done may prove the ruling family's undoing. (Making martyrs out of Shi'ites--what could go wrong with that plan?)

Comments

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

In fact, that's a major source of discontent in Bahrain. Not only are the security forces recruited from outside, but the members are fast-tracked to citizenship as part of a deliberate government strategy to alter the demographic balance.[*] (All detailed in a report by a government employee who--somewhat ironically--was himself of foreign origin and found himself forcibly deported for his pains.) And if that weren't enough, they may already have allowed Saudi forces into the country in order to help suppress the unrest. In any case the Al-Khalifa family wouldn't hesitate to do that if they felt their position seriously threatened. (The Saudis, who have their own restive Shia minority just across the border, might even attempt move in unilaterally if they saw the situation deteriorating.)

But as I mentioned earlier, I think Bahrain is more like Egypt than Libya because of its susceptibility to outside pressure. I mean, the US has its freakin' 5th Fleet there, after all! It's no coincidence that violent suppression of protests in Bahrain came to a halt after a phone call from Obama and I think the army's unwillingness to fire on its own citizens in Egypt was at least somewhat influenced by the administration's vocal comments about "reviewing" the $1.3 billion in military aid they get from the US annually.

[*] Which, of course, nurtures an ugly nativist streak among the Shia opposition. This is especially regretful, because Bahrain is one of the few Gulf states that's actually humane in its treatment of immigrants.

[lhn.livejournal.com]

While I have no idea how widespread this sort of thing is, it's a hopeful sign:

Libyan newspaper Quryna is reporting a crash of a Sukhoi Su-22 'Fitter' fighter-bomber. According to the reporter, the crash happened very near the sea line, to the west of the Libyan city of Ajdabiya—160 kilometers south west of Benghazi. The reason: The crew ejected after refusing to bomb civilians in the city of Benghazi. The pilot—a colonel—and his co-pilot are fine.

This is the third aircraft incident during the popular uprising against Qaddafi. In the first, two Mirage F1 defected, landing in Malta. Two SuperPuma helicopters also escaped to Malta.

http://gizmodo.com/#!5768340/two-libyan-pilots-eject-after-refusing-to-bomb-civilians

[muckefuck.livejournal.com]

Couldn't they maybe have turned around and bombed Bab al-Azizia instead?

(For that matter, why aren't we bombing it again? Aren't the lives of thousands of Libyans worth at least as much as two US army sergeants?)

[lhn.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't necessarily be opposed. But there is a difference between responding to a direct attack on our own people and intervening in another country's internal conflict.

And whatever I think, at this political juncture military intervention to promote democracy in a Muslim country is likely a hard sell politically. Considering the continuing controversy over our actions wrt a regime that violated most of its peace terms from the previous war, will the public support attacking one that-- however murderous at home-- has been sort of behaving itself internationally in recent years, and with which we don't have a direct casus belli?

(We did, at length, intervene in ex-Yugoslavia, but only after it had ground on a long while, and there was no Iraq or Afghanistan fatigue then.)