Exceptional massacre

[muckefuck]

For me, one of the most striking aspects of the horrible slaughter in Libya is how much our expectations have changed. When did we start believing that authoritarian dictators could be unseated with a minimum of bloodshed? It's tempting to see 1989 as the watershed year in this regard, though I don't know if that's giving too little attention to the wave of democratisation in Latin America that preceded it. And even then the thrill of seeing Communist regimes topple like deck chairs before a gale was tempered by the bloody mess of Tiananmen Square.

Four years later, a civil war was in full swing in Algeria in the wake of a de facto military coup; within a decade, perhaps 200,000 died, most of them civilians. And what we have now in Libya is rapidly coming to resemble an old-fashioned civil war more than a people power revolution. Despite the flurry of recent trade agreements, Gaddafi is clearly no more amenable to outside pressure than he ever was. If anything, he's only become more delusional--one glance at his recent pair of appearances is enough to confirm that.

All things considered, I'm amazed that the confirmed body count isn't already above four figures. It's a stark reminder, as fengshui pointed out recently, of just how badly the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt could've gone. Here's hoping it's a powerful example to the remaining dictators of What Not To Do. Already Bahrain seems to be leaning back from the abyss, though the damage already done may prove the ruling family's undoing. (Making martyrs out of Shi'ites--what could go wrong with that plan?)

Comments

[mollyc-q.livejournal.com]

I think we're both in favor of higher standards, but point taken. About the only thing that gives me any long term hope is that Libya' diplomatic core has fragmented or at least turned on him, his capacity to rally external help beyond a cushy exile is lessened by this.

I have to wonder in the case of the Egyptian military, if they took the stand of not shooting the people and remaining in control until Mubarak could stumble into the reality that he had lost power, so that they could keep their borders secure, unlike what happened when we dismantled the Iraqi army after the invasion.

With Libya there is still the possibility that a general strike/its not safe to be on the streets - exerts its own kind of pressure - the thing is we don't know how deep elite (millitary, business, government) opposition runs. the BBC had China and the UK evacuating or preparing to evacuate their citizens - I don't know how long they can go with economic disruption.

A bit random, but

[arkanjil.livejournal.com]

There was a chart floating around recently showing that the number of people actually dying in violent conflicts has been going down steadily for at least several decades. Seemed a bit counter intuitive to me, as the number of conflicts was supposed to have risen for the last 2 decades, but I imagine both number runs are a bit selective.

Mostly I've been following the Arab revolts through NPR, Andrew Sullivan, and some big chunks of Al-jeezera, but its hard to feel sanguine about how all it's going to be in the long term. Ukraine, the Palestinian Authority, & Lebanon (just to name a few) all show that 'democracy' is a very messy process indeed, to put it bluntly.

[gorkabear.livejournal.com]

What I terribly find ironic is how Gaddafi has photos with all Southern Europe politicians. I think that Lybia is Italy's largest bank's largest stakeholder (did I misplace a genitive here?)

I heard on Catalunya Ràdio the translation of his speech. That guy is insane! I wish I could forecast something positive.

[mollyc-q.livejournal.com]

The translations of his speech have been airing for some time now, he denounced the Egyptian and Tunisian Revolutions - so I suspect Anti-Quadaffi forces can negotiate on their Tunisian and Egyptian borders for cooperation.

[thedeli.livejournal.com]

"When did we start believing that authoritarian dictators could be unseated with a minimum of bloodshed? ..."

People aren't reaching as far back as the '80s. I believe the frame of reference is more near-at-hand and more recent than that.