I always suspect they're playing a numbers game, particularly when the aim is to present the appearance of a balanced budget. Do they really figure in the percentage of people who will stop buying cigs in Cook County when they do the projection or do they just take the previous year's take and double it, hoping that no one will call them on it next year? (And how do you estimate what the effect will be when you're the nation's leader in tobacco taxes? One website I ran across claimed that "the consensus" is that, for every 10% increase in price, the number of smokers declines by 7%. Well, that's real simple then: Just increase the price by 150% and everyone will give up smoking--problem solved.)