At the time Prop 8 was passed, it should've been clear to anyone paying attention that that ship had sailed, that--as Gavin Newsom notoriously pointed out--same-sex marriage was coming to California and that all that all a legislative measure could do was, at most, delay it a few years
I don't think that was so clear as all that. Trends can reverse given time, as anyone who remembers the Cold War knows well enough. (For decades, countries only went from non-Communist to Communist. The process might be stopped early with outside intervention, but to a first approximation no country ever made the reverse transition. Until suddenly, with a handful of exceptions, they all did.) Marijuana legalization looked inevitable for a short while a generation before it started to happen (assuming it really sticks this time)-- places like Ann Arbor made it a $5 ticket, Conservative voices like William F. Buckley favored decriminalization. Then the 80s saw a reversal, and a doubling down on the drug war. The NRA spent decades steadily losing ground on gun rights before starting, very recently, to dramatically win.
And if a trend is bad, perceived inevitability is a poor reason to cooperate with it.
Turn it around: suppose a world in which same-sex marriage rights existed, but were where Civil Rights were in the post-Reconstruction era: enacted and theoretically guaranteed by the law, but in practice under steady assault with no help forthcoming from the federal courts. Something like Prop 8 goes on the ballot. If it loses now, it'll probably win in three years-- the trend in public opinion is very clear.
Do you wait for the inevitable? Or do you fight it, and hope that the tide changes before the next go-round?
no subject
I don't think that was so clear as all that. Trends can reverse given time, as anyone who remembers the Cold War knows well enough. (For decades, countries only went from non-Communist to Communist. The process might be stopped early with outside intervention, but to a first approximation no country ever made the reverse transition. Until suddenly, with a handful of exceptions, they all did.) Marijuana legalization looked inevitable for a short while a generation before it started to happen (assuming it really sticks this time)-- places like Ann Arbor made it a $5 ticket, Conservative voices like William F. Buckley favored decriminalization. Then the 80s saw a reversal, and a doubling down on the drug war. The NRA spent decades steadily losing ground on gun rights before starting, very recently, to dramatically win.
And if a trend is bad, perceived inevitability is a poor reason to cooperate with it.
Turn it around: suppose a world in which same-sex marriage rights existed, but were where Civil Rights were in the post-Reconstruction era: enacted and theoretically guaranteed by the law, but in practice under steady assault with no help forthcoming from the federal courts. Something like Prop 8 goes on the ballot. If it loses now, it'll probably win in three years-- the trend in public opinion is very clear.
Do you wait for the inevitable? Or do you fight it, and hope that the tide changes before the next go-round?